The European Central Bank's wage tracker, which monitors active collective bargaining agreements, shows negotiated wage pressures of 2.7 percent in the first quarter of 2027, based on coverage of 28.4 percent of employees in participating countries. The reading indicates broadly stable negotiated wage pressures with a limited role for one-off payments as the year turns.
The tracker recorded negotiated wage growth of 2.3 percent in 2026 when smoothed for one-off payments, based on coverage of 44.3 percent of employees. The forward-looking horizon of the wage tracker, which the ECB extended to March 2027, is expected to be further extended to the second quarter of 2027 in the September 2026 data release as new agreements are signed and coverage of contracts reaching 2027 increases.
The headline ECB wage tracker shows an increase through 2026, averaging 1.8 percent in the first quarter, 2.1 percent in the second quarter and 2.6 percent in the third and fourth quarters. The ECB noted that this increase reflects the fading mechanical downward effect of large one-off payments made in 2024 but not in 2025, a mechanical effect that virtually disappears in the second half of 2026.
The ECB cautioned that the wage tracker may be subject to revision and that the forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, capturing only information currently available for active collective bargaining agreements. The tracker does not measure the indicator of negotiated wage growth precisely, and deviations are to be expected over time.
