China's global strategy under Xi Jinping operates on a double pivot, according to Steve Tsang, a professor of China studies at SOAS University of London and co-author of "China's Global Strategy Under Xi Jinping." The primary pivot is engagement with the Global South, which comprises the majority of countries and population globally, to secure support for reshaping the existing international order by re-centering the United Nations in global politics.
Xi has characterized this approach as the "democratization of international relations," with the goal of making the U.N. more responsive to the Global South's interests. With that support, Beijing seeks to establish "the common destiny for humankind," effectively transforming the remnants of the liberal international order into a Sino-centric system known as "tianxia," or "all under heaven." The second, complementary pivot is China's acquisition of Taiwan, which sits strategically within the First Island Chain in the Pacific.
Tsang noted that Xi has departed from his predecessors by setting a timeline for Taiwan's incorporation into China as part of his "China Dream," with 2050 as a target. Xi would prefer Taiwan to negotiate a "peaceful re-unification" to eliminate the rationale for U.S. intervention. Should negotiation fail, Beijing will use force, Tsang said. Seizure of Taiwan would demonstrate to the United States and its allies that China can dominate the First Island Chain and project power into the Pacific, potentially undermining the credibility of U.S. defense commitments to Japan and South Korea.
Tsang identified the greatest strength of China's strategy as its capacity to gain traction in the Global South, where most nations are not democracies and China carries no colonial legacy. He noted that Global South support costs these nations nothing, as China only asks their backing on U.N. reform and Taiwan. The strategy's greatest weakness, Tsang argued, is that the distinction between preeminence and hegemony is "fundamentally a distinction without a difference," and that Global South support can only be sustained if it remains beneficial to those nations themselves.
