Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies suspect that North Korea is planning to send between 30,000 and 50,000 additional troops to Russia, according to officials. This follows an initial deployment of 14,000 to 15,000 North Korean troops to the Kursk region in late 2024 to assist Russia's military operations in Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials have stated that North Korean ballistic missiles are being fired from Russian territory. Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence reports that North Korea has delivered 148 KN-23 and KN-24 missiles since 2025. Military sources say these missiles are similar to Russia's Iskander systems but have greater payload and longer range, though with lower accuracy.
Military analysts say North Korean troops will likely be used to secure Russian border territories in Kursk and Voronezh rather than fight on Ukrainian soil, which could free up Russian forces for front-line combat. Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military expert at the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, told DW that deploying North Korean soldiers to rear positions could allow Russia to redirect around 15,000 troops to battles in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy or Chernihiv.
However, some analysts question the strategic necessity of North Korean troops. Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev told DW he had not seen concrete evidence of a significant North Korean presence in Russia and that Moscow likely has sufficient forces available. Economist Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs noted that Russia is still recruiting around 1,000 contract soldiers daily, suggesting adequate manpower reserves.
The deployment of North Korean ballistic missiles may prove more consequential. Ukraine has run critically low on US-made Patriot air-defense systems, the only systems capable of stopping these ballistic missiles. Leviev said that as Ukraine's missile-defense stockpiles dwindle, Russia could rely on North Korean missile supplies through the winter months. None of the analysts consulted expect North Korea's involvement to produce a turning point in the war, but military expert Yuri Fyodorov said the additional missiles could significantly challenge Ukraine's defensive capacity in the coming months.
