Several regions in Indonesia are expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall with strong winds on Monday (10 August). The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early rainfall warning for the period of 9–11 August 2026.
BMKG stated that Riau, Central Papua, and Highland Papua are expected to experience moderate to heavy rainfall with Alert status. Other regions that could experience moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds include Banten, Bangka Belitung Islands, and North Sulawesi. BMKG has not identified any regions with Standby or Critical alert status for Monday.
Global climate indicator developments show consistent signals towards dry conditions in Indonesia. BMKG recorded the Niño 3.4 Index at +2.02 accompanied by a Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value of −27.7, indicating strong El Niño conditions are still ongoing. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Index at +0.63 shows a tendency toward the positive phase, a condition that generally supports reduced formation of rain clouds.
The rainfall forecast for the second ten-day period of August 2026 shows 95.62 per cent of Indonesian territory in the low category while 4.38 per cent falls in the moderate category. BMKG stated that regions predicted to experience low-category rainfall include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, and Papua.
However, BMKG noted that rainfall potential could still occur in several other regions due to atmospheric wave activity and a low-pressure centre predicted to form in the Indian Ocean west of Bengkulu, which could increase rain cloud development in affected areas.
